Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.946151 14.795671 16.800715 19.133914 21.772447 24.661839 28.063889
2024-10-27 9.604422 11.941123 14.678322 18.114159 22.304328 27.240789 33.490033
2024-11-03 8.432407 11.057739 14.286824 18.537002 23.969478 30.665077 39.527171
2024-11-10 7.532201 10.352972 13.974681 18.943955 25.560992 34.042417 45.708523
2024-11-17 6.624143 9.489454 13.309569 18.744953 26.245104 36.190363 50.332032
2024-11-24 5.830059 8.675725 12.603010 18.379507 26.613100 37.872304 54.370634
2024-12-01 5.289701 8.149885 12.223426 18.398471 27.462328 40.205978 59.391040
2024-12-08 4.910779 7.813263 12.068958 18.701755 28.703373 43.127465 65.384669
2024-12-15 4.538623 7.445026 11.825488 18.834305 29.674721 45.686417 70.971478
2024-12-22 4.142353 6.998145 11.418027 18.670462 30.163826 47.531720 75.569744
2024-12-29 3.869290 6.720097 11.243282 18.842164 31.160669 50.174535 81.504010
2025-01-05 3.714441 6.619950 11.337994 19.439897 32.853073 53.967215 89.421123
2025-01-12 3.409482 6.245926 10.966699 19.263999 33.309899 55.883257 94.549860
2025-01-19 2.979091 5.615736 10.117543 18.222671 32.262142 55.312002 95.611094
2025-01-26 2.846072 5.500347 10.134131 18.652968 33.705600 58.878917 103.674162
2025-02-02 2.720148 5.385737 10.140652 19.060634 35.127745 62.479320 111.983815
2025-02-09 2.514377 5.102853 9.822771 18.861025 35.461694 64.234807 117.213721
2025-02-16 2.304627 4.793177 9.430652 18.493251 35.461635 65.397453 121.454172
2025-02-23 2.165117 4.608340 9.255588 18.512385 36.159732 67.813844 128.029600
2025-03-02 2.072417 4.508847 9.233991 18.817430 37.401005 71.258997 136.628765
2025-03-09 1.966105 4.371984 9.128759 18.950765 38.320602 74.160084 144.375185
2025-03-16 1.834915 4.171432 8.881997 18.785958 38.651552 75.982917 150.202335
2025-03-23 1.749701 4.061365 8.808038 18.958669 39.645228 79.087478 158.586144